Export activity consolidates recovery in fourth quarter of 2020

For the State Secretary for Trade, Xiana Méndez, "the rise in the indicator shows that export activity has consolidated its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, following the impact of COVID-19 in the second quarter and the partial recovery in the third quarter. This improvement is widespread, both in current orders and in the hiring of staff, and in future expectations".

The rise in the ISAE mainly stems from an improvement in the current order backlog, which has risen by almost 20 points to stand at 12.1 points. Export expectations at three and 12 months have also improved, rising by 6.5 and 6 points respectively on the previous quarter, to stand at 3.6 and 24 points respectively.

The three most quoted factors with a positive influence on export activity are the performance of external demand (35.8%), competition in terms of quality (23.2%) and the availability of suitable human resources for export activity (20.9%). International price competition and raw materials prices were the factors most mentioned with a negative influence, at 59.4% and 48.1% respectively. These were followed by the performance of external demand (43.8%) and the exchange rate (29.8%).

All the indicators on employment and the hiring of personnel for export tasks have improved: the balance indicator of hiring in the quarter has risen by almost 13 points to stand at 3.7, the indictor for forecasts in hiring at three months has risen by almost one point to -2, the outlook at 12 months has risen by almost 2 points to 3.1 and the indicator on the level of dedication of the workforce to export tasks has risen by almost 17 points to 10.1.

Stability continues to be the dominant perception of the performance of export prices and margins, although a decline can be observed in both cases on the previous quarter in the perception of a downward trend and a slight increase in the upward trend.

By destination, the indicator balance of the order backlog in the current quarter has improved in general on the previous quarter, achieving positive values for the European Union and for North America. Order backlog expectations at three months have also improved in all areas under consideration, the most positive being the Eurozone (11.3%) while the most negative is the rest of Europe (-3.8%).

The main export destinations for the next 12 months are France (51.1%), Germany (51%), Portugal (31%), Italy (27.1%), the USA, (23.7%) and the UK (23.6%).

About the ISAE

The ISAE is a compound indicator which summarises information from companies surveyed on the performance of their export order backlog in the reference quarter and their export outlook at three and 12 months. This index may move between a range of -100 and +100. Positive values indicate a better perception of actual and/or expected export activity.

The ISAE comprises, in turn, three simple indicators (order backlog balance for the current quarter, and order backlog outlook at three and 12 months) which are based on the difference between companies which expect an upward trend and those that expect a downward trend.

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Non official translation