Companies improve order backlog together with long-term activity and employment expectations

The ISAE is a compound indicator which summarises information provided by the companies surveyed on the performance of their export order backlog in the reference quarter and their export prospects at three and twelve months. This index may move within a range of -100 to +100. Positive values indicate a better perception of actual and/or expected export activity. The ISAE comprises, in turn, three simple indicators (order backlog balance for the current quarter, and order backlog outlooks at three and 12 months) which are based on the difference between companies which expect an upward trend and those that expect the trend to be downward.

The order backlog balance indicator for the quarter rose from 13.8 points in the previous quarter (the summer months) to 22.5 points, while the 12-month outlook has improved by nearly three points to 39.5. In turn, the three-month outlook fell only two-tenths of a point to 25.

Those surveyed perceive an upward trend in export prices in the quarter and a more favourable trend in the export profit margin when compared with the previous month.

The three factors most cited as a positive influence are the performance of external demand (46.1%), right-sized human resources for export activity (23.3%), and competition in terms of quality (21.1%). The factors most mentioned as a negative influence are raw material prices (55%), international price competition (50.9%) and oil prices (44.6%). The positive perception of external demand rose when compared with the previous quarter, as did the negative perception of the influence had by oil prices.

In terms of the trend in the hiring of personnel for export activities, respondents' perception is more favourable than in the previous quarter. The indicators for the current quarter and for the next three months rose by more than one point, while the 12-month indicator on hiring rose seven-tenths of one point. The balance indicator referring to the degree of staff dedication to export-related tasks also rose, by over four points.

In terms of the export destinations, the current order backlog balance indicator shows an improvement in all areas considered except North America. However, the three-month outlooks seem less favourable for most destinations, barring the Eurozone, Asia and Oceania. Nonetheless, the trend posted by the indicator in the Eurozone almost completely offsets the decrease seen in most other areas.

The main export destinations for the next twelve months are France (44.8%), Germany (39.1%), Italy (22.7%), USA (20.5%), Portugal (19.5%), United Kingdom (19.5%), Mexico (10.4%), China (9.4%), and Morocco (9.3%).

Non official translation