Exports hit a new high and the deficit shrinks by 29% to September

Meanwhile imports shrank by 1.6% to 201.71 billion. Conversely, in volume terms imports increased by 2.7%, since prices shrank by 4.2%.

As a result, the trade deficit from January to September stood at 13.23 billion euros, 29.0% less than the figure for the same period in 2015, and the second best cumulative trade balance posted for the first nine months of the year since 1997, only bettered by 2013.

The coverage rate stood at 93.4%, i.e. 2.5 percentage points higher than in the period January-September 2015 (90.9%, provisional figures), and the second highest coverage recorded for this period in the entire time series, only bettered by 2013. The non-energy balance showed a deficit of 1.18 billion euros (versus a surplus of 2.03 billion euros in January-September 2015), while the energy balance fell by 41.7% as a result of the substantial drop in energy prices.

If we compare these results with those of other countries, cumulative export growth in Spain (1.2%) is better than in the Eurozone (0.0%) and in the European Union as a whole (-0.9%). Of the main EU economies, exports from France (-1.5% year-on-year) and from the UK (-4.3%) both decreased, while exports from Germany (1.0%) and Italy (0.5%) grew, albeit to a lesser extent than in Spain in both cases. Outside the EU, exports from the USA (-5.0% year-on-year), China (-6.8%) and Japan (-9.2%) also fell.

Economic sectors

In the first nine months of 2016 exports in the main categories performed positively. Exports of capital goods (20.1% of the total) grew by 2.2% year-on-year, while sales of the automotive (18.0% of the total) and food, drink and tobacco (16.8% of the total) sectors were up by 8.5% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively. Meanwhile, energy product sales fell (-4.4% year-on-year) on the back of low energy prices, while sales of chemical products (-0.4%), non-chemical semi-manufactures (-2.8%), raw materials (-6.7%) and other goods (-49.4%) all shrank.

Thus the greatest positive contributions to export growth came from the automotive sector (a contribution of 1.4 percentage points to total export growth), food, drink and tobacco (1.0 point), consumer manufactures (0.6 points) and capital goods (0.4 points). The main negative contributions came from the sectors of other goods (-1.7 points), non-chemical semi-manufactures (-0.3 points), energy products (-0.2 points), and raw materials (-0.2 points).

By subsectors, the main positive contributions came from automobiles and motorcycles (1.3 points, mainly due to higher sales to Germany, Italy, Belgium and the UK), road haulage equipment (0.6 points, to the UK, Italy and the Netherlands), clothing (0.4 points, to Italy, the USA, the UK and Ireland), and meat products (0.3 points, especially to China and, to a lesser extent, to Japan, Libya and Hong-Kong).

Conversely, the subsectors that most dragged exports were iron and steel (-0.4 points, mainly due to the lower sales to Algeria, USA, Italy and UK), medicines (-0.2 points, due to lower sales to the Netherlands, UK, USA and Japan), minerals (-0.2 points, mainly to Bulgaria and, some considerable way behind, to France), and coal and electricity (-0.2 points, particularly to Morocco, Portugal and Germany).

With regard to imports, the consolidation of the recovery of the Spanish economy is driving growth in most sectors. Imports of capital goods (21.6% of the total) increased by 8.0% year-on-year, automotive sector imports (13.9% of the total) grew by 5.3%, and imports of consumer manufactures, food, drink and tobacco, and durable consumer goods grew by 6.2%, 5.1% and 8.8%, respectively.

Thus the main positive contributions to imports in the period January-September 2016 came from the following sectors: capital goods (a contribution of 1.6 points), consumer manufactures (0.7 points), automotive (0.7 points), and food, drink and tobacco (0.6 points). The greatest negative contributions in this period came from the sectors of energy products (-4.4 points), chemical products (-0.5 points) and raw materials (-0.4 points).

By subsectors, the main positive contributions were made by automobiles and motorcycles (0.8 points, mainly due to higher purchases from Germany and, some way behind, Italy, Japan and Belgium), clothing (0.5 points, mostly from Bangladesh, Morocco, Turkey and Cambodia), aircraft (0.4 points, from USA, France and, to a lesser extent, Canada and the UK), and general purpose machinery (0.3 points, from China, Germany, Italy and France).

Conversely, the subsectors in which imports decreased the most were oil and oil derivates (-3.4 points, mainly due to lower purchases from Nigeria, Angola, the UK and Mexico), gas (-0.8 points, largely due to lower purchases from Algeria and, some considerable way behind, from Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, and Norway), and medicines (-0.4 points, from the USA and Ireland).

Geographic areas

Exports to the European Union (66.5% of the total) grew by 3.9% in January-September of 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year. In the case of sales to the Eurozone (51.7% of the total) and to the rest of the European Union (14.7% of the total), these grew by 3.6% and 4.9%, respectively. Conversely, the unfavourable trade cycle in emerging countries caused exports to third countries (33.5% of the total) to fall by 3.8% in this period, with lower sales to North America (-1.0%), Latin America (-11.3%), the Middle East (-5.0%), Africa (-1.1%), and Oceania (-22.3%). Only sales to Asia excluding the Middle East increased (3.1%). Although the trend in sales to third markets was generally downward, special note should be made of sales to such high potential markets as Morocco (+15.0%), China (+11.8%), Canada (+9.1%) and Chile (+3.3%).

The countries with the greatest positive contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in Spanish exports in the period January-September 2016 (1.2%) were Germany (0.7 points, due to higher sales of automobiles and motorcycles and, a long way behind, sales of fruit, vegetables and pulses, and electrical appliances), Italy (0.7 points, due to stronger exports of automobiles and motorcycles and, to a lesser extent, road haulage equipment, and other chemical products), the UK (0.6 points, largely due to the increase of sales of automobiles and motorcycles, aircraft, and road haulage equipment), and Belgium (0.5 points, due to stronger exports of automobiles and motorcycles and, some way behind, oil and oil derivates, and road haulage equipment).

Conversely, the greatest negative contributions were made by France (-0.5 points, due to lower sales of oil and oil derivates, and automobiles and motorcycles), Saudi Arabia (-0.3 points, as a result of falling aircraft sales), Gibraltar (-0.3 points, due to a drop in exports of oil and oil derivates), and Brazil (-0.2 points, caused by lower sales of automobiles and motorcycles, medicines, and electrical appliances).

By autonomous regions, the regions which recorded the greatest year-on-year rate of change in exports in the period January-September 2016 were Castile and Leon (11.1% year-on-year), Castile-La Mancha (9.3%), and Cantabria (5.2%). Conversely, the greatest year-on-year declines were posted by the Canary Islands (-18.9% year-on-year), Asturias (-12.4%) and the Balearics (-11.0%).

In terms of contributions to the year-on-year rate of change in total exports, the greatest positive contributions came from Castile and Leon (0.6 percentage points), whose exports accounted for 6.4% of the total and grew by 11.1% year-on-year, and Catalonia (0.5 percentage points) whose sales accounted for 25.8% of the total and grew by 2.1% year-on-year. The regions with the greatest negative contributions were the Region of Madrid with -0.4 points (10.9% of the total of exports, down by 3.3%), and Asturias with -0.2 points (1.3% of the total, down by 12.4%).

Exports from the Region of Valencia (11.4% of the total) grew by 3.3% and exports from Andalusia (10.0% of the total) grew by 0.2%. Meanwhile exports from the Basque Country (8.5% of the total) shrank by 1.0% while exports from Galicia (7.8% of the total) were up by 4.7%.

September 2016

In September, Spanish exports of goods remained stable in year-on-year terms at 21.43 billion euros, the highest ever figure for this month. Conversely, by volume exports grew by 0.2% year-on-year, due to the fact that prices measured by Unit Value Indices fell by 0.2%. However, in deseasonalised terms exports decreased by 0.7%.

Imports in September 2016 shrank by 1.4% in year-on-year terms to 23.66 billion euros. Conversely, by volume, imports grew by 0.3%, due to import prices falling by 1.7%.

Consequently, the trade balance for September 2016 showed a deficit of 2.23 billion euros, 13.2% lower than in the same month of 2015 (a deficit of 2.57 billion euros), and the best figure for this month since 1997. The coverage rate stood at 90.6%, the highest percentage recorded for this month since the time series began, and 1.3 percentage points more than the figure for September 2015 (89.3%, provisional figures). The non-energy balance posted a deficit of 1.02 billion euros (versus a deficit of 704.1 million euros in September 2015, provisional figures) and the energy deficit shrank by 35.2%.

The stability of exports from Spain (0.0%) contrasts with the increase experienced by the Eurozone (1.0%) and the drop recorded in the European Union as a whole (-0.5%). With regard to the main EU economies, exports from France (-2.0% year-on-year) and UK (-1.2%) both fell, while exports from Germany (0.9%) and Italy (3.1%) both grew. Outside the EU, exports from the USA (-0.2% year-on-year), China (-10.2%) and Japan (-6.9%) all fell.

Economic sectors

In the month of September, the greatest contributions to export growth came from the following sectors: food, drink and tobacco (a contribution of 1.1 points), consumer manufactures (0.7 points), energy products (0.4 points), and raw materials (0.4 points). Meanwhile the only sectors making a negative contribution to export growth were other goods (a contribution of -1.3 points), chemical products (a contribution of -0.5 points), capital goods (a contribution of -0.5 points), and automotive sector (-0.4 points).

By subsectors, the main positive contributions were from oil and oil derivates (0.6 points, mainly due to higher sales to Morocco, Brazil, Italy and Canada), other consumer manufactures (0.5 points, especially to France and, some way behind, to Germany, the UK and Italy), minerals (0.3 points to Bulgaria, China, Norway and France), and road haulage equipment (0.3 points, mostly to Italy, and to a lesser extent to the Netherlands, the UK and Saudi Arabia).

Conversely, the subsectors that most dragged export growth were medicines (-0.7 points, mainly due to lower sales to the Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, to the UK, France and China), electrical appliances (-0.4 points, mostly to Poland followed, some considerable way behind, by the UK and Belgium), automobiles and motorcycles (-0.3 points, especially to France and, a long way behind, to the USA, the UK and Algeria), and organic chemical products (-0.2 points, to Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Greece).

Geographic areas

In September 2016, 67.6% of total exports were to the European Union, a lower figure than the one posted in September the previous year, when exports to the EU accounted for 68.1% of the total. This percentage reduction was due to exports to the Eurozone (52.7% versus 53.2% in September 2015), since the contribution to exports of the rest of the EU remained stable (14.9% in September 2015 and 2016).

Exports to the European Union fell by 0.6% year-on-year, while exports to the Eurozone and to the rest of the European Union fell by 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively. Of our main trade partners we would highlight the growth of exports to Italy (8.7%) and Germany (1.1%), while exports to France (-7.5%) and the UK (-1.5%) diminished.

Exports to non-EU countries accounted for 32.4% of the total (31.9% in September 2015) up by 1.5% year-on-year. By regions, only sales to Asia excluding the Middle East (+11.8%) increased, due to higher sales to China (+10.4%), Hong Kong (+14.0%), India (+30.6%) and Japan (+12.5%). Exports to all other non-EU areas shrank: North America (-3.1%), Latin America (-4.5%), Middle East (-1.0%), Africa (-0.7%) and Oceania (-0.3%). By countries, there was strong export growth to Canada (+24.5%), Egypt (+46.7%) and Morocco (+8.1%), along with the aforementioned countries in Asia excluding the Middle East, while exports shrank to the USA (-5.9%), Argentina (-45.8%), Venezuela (-50.4%) and Algeria (-10.7%).

The countries with the greatest positive contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in Spanish exports in September 2016 (0.0%) were Italy (0.7 points, due to higher sales of automobiles and motorcycles, road haulage equipment, and clothing), Belgium (0.3 points, largely due to an increase in exports of automobiles and motorcycles, gas, and non-ferrous metals), China (0.2 points, due to the increase of sales of special purpose machinery, automotive components, and minerals), and Morocco (0.2 points, due to higher exports of oil and oil derivates, and oils and fats).

Conversely, the greatest negative contributions came from France (-1.3 points, due to lower sales of oil and oil derivates, automobiles and motorcycles and, to a lesser extent, vessels), Poland (-0.4 points, largely due to a drop in exports of electrical appliances and, to a much lesser extent, special purpose machinery and engines), Netherlands (-0.3 points, due to lower sales of medicines, and oil and oil derivates), and the USA (-0.3 points, as a result of weaker exports of non-ferrous metals, automobiles and motorcycles, and oil and oil derivates).

Spain's trade surplus with the European Union stood at 601.8 million euros in September 2016 (lower than the surplus of 999.8 million euros posted in September 2015, provisional figures). The trade balance with the Eurozone showed a surplus of 211.6 million euros (less than the surplus of 616.1 million euros in the same month of the previous year). Meanwhile, the trade deficit with non-EU countries shrank by 20.7% versus September 2015 to 2.83 billion euros (a deficit of 3.57 billion euros in September 2015).