Three- and twelve-month export prospects improve

The ISAE¹ is the result of the weighted sum of the balance indicator² for the order backlog in the current quarter (8.2), the three-month prospect (24), and the twelve-month prospect (36.1). Compared with the previous first quarter, the first balance has worsened (from 15 to 8.2 points), while the other two have improved moderately or slightly (from 13.9 to 24 points, and from 34.2 to 36.1 respectively).

The value of the index is appreciably higher in the durable consumer goods (35) and food, drink and tobacco (23.1) sectors but much lower for energy products (5.2).

Factors in export activity

Compared with the previous quarter, external demand has gained importance in terms of being the most mentioned factor due to its positive impact. Meanwhile, international price competition continues to be a factor which most of the respondents see as a negative influence.

Hiring of personnel for export activities

In terms of the trend in the hiring of personnel for export activities, stability continues to be the most commonly aired opinion. The indices summarising this information are nevertheless positive and are just a little lower than in the previous quarter. The score for the export-related job creation indicator (6.2) has dropped by over three points compared with the previous quarter, while the score for expectation to hire in the next three months is up by three points (7), while for the next twelve months it is up by more than three points (15.1).

In sector terms, the greatest expectations to hire in the current quarter are reported by companies in the durable consumer goods sector. For three and twelve months the companies with the highest expectations are in the food, drinks and tobacco sector. The least optimistic figures for the current quarter and in twelve months' time are posted by energy product companies, while for three-month expectations the latter sector is joined by commodities.

Export destinations of the order backlog

In all the areas considered, the highest percentage of responses call for the export order backlog to remain stable in the third quarter of 2016. The indicator balance for current order backlog has dropped compared with the previous quarter for all destinations under consideration except for Latin America, which has moved into positive figures (1.1). The drop is especially sharp for the non-Eurozone and the rest of Europe, although all the scores except in this last mentioned area (-3.8) continue to be positive. Despite the drop, the highest index score continues to be for North America (13).

The figure for the indicator balance of three-month export prospects is now higher than in the previous quarter for most of the destinations considered, except for Africa, North America and Asia. Again for the three-month prospect, despite losing some ground, North America continues to be the highest scoring region (22.8).

The countries which the highest proportion of Spanish exporting companies consider to be their main export destinations over the next twelve months are France (40.4%) and Germany (38%). Next come the USA (21.2%), Italy (20.8%), the UK (18.9%), Portugal (16.3%), Morocco (13.8%) and Mexico (11.1%).

¹The ISAE is an index which summarises the information provided by the companies surveyed regarding the performance of their export order backlog in the quarter in question and export prospects at three and twelve months. This index may vary between -100 and +100, whereby positive values indicate a more optimistic perception of export activity and/or expectations regarding the future trend by respondent companies and negative values indicate the opposite.

²The balance indicator is calculated as the difference between the percentage of companies which indicate an upward trend and those indicating a downward trend, corrected by those not answering.