Company export outlooks at three months on the rise

The indicator is significantly higher in the chemical products sector (26) and the food, beverage and tobacco sector (23.2), while much lower in the raw materials sector (at a negative value of -9.3), the energy products sector (4.3) and the non-chemical semi-manufactured products sector (6.5).

Order backlog and outlook

Perception of performance by the export order backlog in the quarter is less favourable than in the previous quarter. The balance indicator stands at 11.2 points, showing a decrease of over nine points when compared with the figure posted in the previous quarter (20.7).

However, expectations from companies regarding the development of performance by the export order backlog at three months are now more favourable than in the previous quarter, showing an increase of slightly over five points on the figure posted in the previous quarter (15). At twelve months, the export outlook from companies has worsened when compared with the previous quarter to stand at 33.8 points, almost four points lower than in the second quarter.

Factors in export activity

The majority of companies state that the trend in foreign demand continues to be the factor having the greatest positive impact on export activity (39.6%), although this percentage has fallen by six points on the previous quarter.

International price competition remains as the factor cited by the largest number of those surveyed to be having a negative impact (50.1%), although this percentage is 5.6 points lower than that recorded in the previous quarter.

There has been a moderate increase in the percentage of those stating that their prices fell in the quarter, while the numbers of both those who stated their prices increased and those who stated their prices remained stable decreased.

There is a slight improvement in the perception of export profit margin trends, although these figures have changed only slightly.

Personnel engaged in export activity

In the third quarter of the year, there were increased expectations at companies to hire personnel for export activity at both three and twelve months. This reflects the increase of over two points in the balance indicator for these two factors. In contrast, stability continues to be the dominant factor in hiring new personnel in the current quarter.

In sectoral terms, the highest hiring forecasts at three and twelve months were expressed by companies in the food, beverage and tobacco, manufactured consumer goods and chemical products sectors.

Export destinations in the order backlog

According to the companies surveyed, their order backlog in the current quarter improved slightly for destinations in North America and Oceania, while it declined for destinations in Asia and Africa.

In contrast, export outlooks at three months improved for the majority of destinations, with figures in excess of those posted in the previous quarter. They were lower for North America (23.2), Africa (17.5) and Asia (15.6), albeit still high. The balance indicator on export outlooks for the EU-28 countries stands at 17.7 points, almost four points higher than in the previous quarter.

Most Spanish export companies believe that their main destinations at twelve months will be France (41.1%) and Germany (39%). These are followed by the United States (20.4%), United Kingdom (19.8%), Italy (17.7%), Portugal (13.7%), Mexico (10%), China (9.6%) and Morocco (9.4%).

Note: The ISAE is an indicator that summarises the information provided by the companies consulted for the survey on the development of their portfolio of export orders in the quarter subject to study and their outlooks regarding the same at three and twelve months. The indicator ranges from -100 to +100 in such a way that positive values indicate an improved outlook for export activity and/or forecasts regarding the future development thereof by the companies participating in the survey, and vice-versa.