CPI moderates its fall to 0.7% due to reduced drop in energy prices

News - 2015.4.14

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This acceleration can mainly be explained by energy products, and to a lesser extent, by processed foods and services. In relation to the previous month, the general CPI increased by 0.6% compared with a 0.2% increase in the corresponding month of 2014.

Energy prices posted a year-on-year decline of 7.4% in March, 2.8% higher than the previous month. This more moderate decline is mainly attributable to the heading of fuels, which moderated by almost 4% its year-on-year decline to 9.1%, in line with the upward trend of petrol prices in February and March. In turn, electricity prices dropped slightly in the month (- 0.4%), to stand at an annual rate of -3.3%, which compares with -2.9% the previous month. The year-on-year change in prices of non-processed foods remains unchanged at 0.9% in March. This stability results from the increase in headings such as fresh fish and fruit being offset by a moderation in fresh vegetables and certain meat products such as beef and poultry.

Underlying inflation (which excludes some of the more volatile elements of the CPI such as fresh food and energy) remained unchanged in March at 0.2% for the third consecutive month in a row. This stability stems from a moderation in the inflation of NEIGs (non-energy industrial goods), offset by an increase in the price of services and processed foods. The year-on-year rate of NEIGs has fallen by 0.1% to -0.2%, while services and processed foods have increased by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, to 0.4% and 0.3%.

Within the group of services, the price increase mainly responds to the heading of tourism and the hotel and catering industry, up by 0.5% to 1.4% year-on-year, as a result of the dynamic nature of tourism demand due to Easter Week; hence, organised year-on-year travel prices increased by 2.9% in February to 6.5% in March, while hotels, cafés and restaurants increased their rate by 0.1% to 0.7%. The year-on-year rate for Inter-urban public transport prices moderated by 1.3% to stand at zero.

NEIG prices fell by a year-on-year 0.1% in March to -0.2% (-0.15%). Processed foods, including beverages and tobacco, posted an increased rate of 0.3% compared with 0.1% in February. This increase can be explained by the upward trend of such headings as cooking oil and tobacco, which offset the moderation in other headings, such as milk.

In month-on-month terms, the CPI rose by 0.6% in March, compared with a lower rise of 0.2% in the corresponding month of 2014. This slight increase can be explained by rising prices of energy products (particularly of fuels), services (particularly tourism and the hotel and catering industry) and processed foods (due to rising cooking oil prices). In March, energy products posted a month-on-month increase of 2.7%, as a result of a 3.9% rise in fuel prices, offset in part by a slight fall of 0.4% in electricity and gas prices (-1.7%). NEIG prices increased by 1.2% on the previous month, similarly to the previous year, as a result of the seasonal increase in clothing and footwear (up 4.3%). Service prices increased by 0.3% in March on the previous month, mainly due to the heading of tourism and the hotel and catering industry (up 0.9%).

The annual CPI rate increased in March in all the autonomous regions. Seven of them posted inflation rates higher than the national average: Catalonia (-0.3%), the Basque Country and Balearic Islands (-0.4% in both cases), La Rioja and Madrid (-0.5% in both cases), and the Region of Valencia and Navarre (-0.6% in both cases). Andalusia, Aragon, Asturias, Galicia and Murcia all posted a rate of -0.8%, Cantabria and Extremadura of -0.9% and the remaining three regions posted a rate of inflation of -1.1%. The annual CPI rate at constant taxes in March stood at -0.6%, 0.1% higher than the general CPI.

The INE also published the harmonised CPI (CPIA) for the month of March, which stood at a year-on-year -0.8%, versus -1.2% in the previous month. If we compare this figure with the one estimated by Eurostat for the Eurozone as a whole in March (-0.1%), the inflation differential in Spain's favour is -0.7%, compared with -0.9% in the previous month.

To summarise, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI increased in March by 0.4%, due to price trends in energy products and, to a lesser extent, in processed foods and services. Underlying inflation remained unchanged at 0.2% for the third consecutive month. Price stability is hence continuing as is the positive inflation differential with the Eurozone, which are having a positive effect on the competitiveness of the Spanish economy, that, in turn, is helping to drive exports, production and employment.