Exporting companies have improved their export prospects and employment outlook for the coming quarter

The ISAE is a compound indicator which summarises information provided by the companies surveyed on the performance of their export order backlog in the reference quarter and their export prospects at three and twelve months. This index may move within a range of -100 to +100; positive values indicate a better perception of actual and/or expected export activity.

The ISAE comprises, in turn, three simple indicators (order backlog balance for the current quarter, and order backlog outlooks at three and 12 months) which are based on the difference between companies which expect an upward trend and those that expect the trend to be downward.

Due to the seasonal factors associated with the summer, the balance indicator for the current quarter dropped from 20.9 points in the previous quarter to 13.8 points the, while the three month outlook has improved by nearly seven points to 25.2 (18.5 in the second quarter). Finally, the twelve month outlook has dropped by a little over three points to 36.9.

With regard to export prices and the commercial profit margin from exports, these strengthen the perception of stability as the dominant feature of the expected performance of both indicators.

The three factors most mentioned as a positive influence are the performance of external demand (41.7%), right-sized human resources (24.3%), and competition in terms of quality (19.5%). The factors most mentioned as negative influences are international price competition (54.4%), raw material prices (51.7%), and the exchange rate (40.3%). Compared to the previous quarter, the negative perception of raw material prices has decreased while that of the exchange rate has increased significantly.

In terms of the trend in the hiring of personnel for export activities, respondents' perception is less favourable than in the previous quarter. The three month hiring indicator (8.5 points) is up by 1.2 points, while the indicators for the current quarter (8.3 points) and for the next twelve months (15.6 points) have worsened by 1.6 points and 0.4 points respectively compared to the previous period. The balance indicator referring to the degree of staff dedication to export-related tasks is also down by 6.5 points.

With regard to export destinations, the three month outlooks are more favourable for most destinations. All have improved, with the exception of Latin America, Asia and Oceania. Conversely, the current order backlog balance indicator shows a drop in all areas, barring North America and Latin America.

The main export destinations for the next twelve months are France (40.8%), Germany (40.6%), Italy (21.8%), USA (20.3%), Portugal (18.7%), United Kingdom (18%), Mexico (11.5%), China (9.6%), and Morocco (9.5%).

The full report is available on the Ministry's website.

Non official translation