Synthetic Index of Export Activity (ISAE) remains positive in second quarter

This reduction was affected by seasonal factors, with companies reporting lower export expectations during the summer months. At any event, this ISAE figure is the second-highest in a second quarter of the year since 2007 following the all-time high of 23.1 posted in 2014.

Order backlog and outlook

The trend in outlooks on the order backlog was positive and stood at 20.7 points, one point above the figure posted in the previous quarter (19.7). The indicator representing the outlook at three months fell by 14.2 points (from 29.2 to 15 points). Export expectations at three months in the second quarter of the year usually reflect a less optimistic outlook ahead of the summer months. This seasonal effect heralds a fall in Spanish exports, which is usual in the summer period. In turn, the indicator representing the outlook at 12 months fell by 6.5 points (from 44.2 to 37.7 points).

Factors in export activity

The trend in foreign demand continues to be the factor that most of those surveyed consider to be having a positive impact on export activity (45.7%). In contrast, international price competition is the factor cited by the largest number of those surveyed as having a negative impact (55.7%).

Export prices and profit margins are another two factors analysed this quarter and that affect export activity. In both cases, the majority of export companies stated that their outlook on prices and commercial profit margin from exports in the quarter is one of stability.

Hiring of personnel for export activities

93% of those surveyed consider that the hiring of personnel for activities related to export activity remained stable or increased in the second quarter of the year. The same opinion was expressed by 92.1% regarding their expectations for the next quarter, while 92.8% believe the same for the next 12 months. Furthermore, 92% stated that the number of jobs dedicated to export activities has remained stable or increased in the second quarter.

The net hiring balance indicator in the quarter for export activities stood at 9 points (10.7 in the previous survey), while this figure on the forecast at three months stood at 2.5 points (6 in the previous survey) and the figure on the forecast at 12 months stood at 10.8 points (12.2 in the previous survey).

Export destinations in the order backlog

For the majority of export destination regions, the current balance indicator has improved over the figure posted in the previous quarter, except for North America (22.8) and Latin America (11.4).

The balance indicator on the export outlook at three months fell for all export destinations, mainly in Latin America (15.6) and Oceania (6.2).

Most Spanish export companies believe that their main destinations in the long term will be France (41.9%) and Germany (39.4%).

Notes:

1. The ISAE is an indicator that summarises the information provided by the companies consulted for the survey on the development of their portfolio of export orders in the quarter subject to study and their outlooks regarding the same at three and twelve months. The indicator ranges from -100 to +100 in such a way that positive values indicate an improved outlook for export activity and/or forecasts regarding the future development thereof by the companies participating in the survey, and vice-versa.

2. These indicators, referring to trends in the number of people employed for export-based activities, comprise the difference between the percentage of companies that express an upward trend and the percentage of companies that express a downward trend. Positive values indicate an improved outlook on employment for export-based activities in the quarter in question or forecasts regarding the future development thereof by the companies, while negative values indicate the opposite.